Economía

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Author: search.filters.author.Aragón Pilco, Bryan JairSubject: search.filters.subject.EGRESOS

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    Impacto que genera el gasto del sector público no financiero sobre los agregados monetarios: Un análisis desde el aprendizaje automático
    (Univeridad Técnica de Ambato. Facultad de Contabilidad y Auditoria. Maestria. Maestria en Economía con mención en Banca y Finanzas, 2024-11) Aragón Pilco, Bryan Jair; DT - Vásconez Gavilanes, Lidia Rosario
    The study examines the relationship between non-financial public sector expenditure and the monetary aggregates M1 (money supply) and M2 (total liquidity) in the Ecuadorian financial system during 2010-2023. The research is based on the sustained growth of the money supply and total liquidity, even during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the impact of public spending on the financial system. The main objective focuses on identifying how certain types of public spending influence monetary aggregates. A quantitative approach will be applied, following a descriptive, correlational, and explanatory research design, using machine learning models and Granger causality analysis to capture the non-linear dynamics of the variables. Four supervised machine learning models will be implemented. The results revealed variations in public spending, with a noticeable upward trend in the final months of each year. However, the periods in which expenditure levels peaked do not always coincide with the highest revenue levels in the national financial system. Permanent expenditures show positive correlations with monetary aggregates, while non permanent expenditures exhibit weak, inverse correlations. It is noteworthy that certain types of expenditure, such as wages, salaries, and social security benefits, have a direct impact on the money supply and total liquidity. Moreover, causality analysis indicates that permanent expenditures (wages, salaries, debt interest, and social security benefits) have a causal relationship with the money supply and total liquidity. As for non-permanent expenditures, causality towards both aggregates is observed, suggesting that this type of expenditure directly influences the financial system.