Análisis hidrológico e hidráulico para la identificación de zonas de inundaciones en el área urbana del cantón Ambato e integrar estrategias de mitigación

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to identify flood-prone areas in the urban zone of Ambato, Ecuador, and to propose mitigation methods that could be implemented to reduce associated hazards. A quantitative methodology was employed, combining the HEC-HMS hydrological model, calibrated with Provincial Government of Tungurahua data (2013–2024), and the HECRAS 2D hydraulic model to simulate an extreme event with a 50-year return period, using an 11-year weighted series of hydrometeorological data. The research relied exclusively on secondary data and did not involve human participants. The results identified a flood-prone area of 72.77 hectares, 55.6% of which was classified with “Very High” or “High” hazard levels. Additionally, an exposed population of 13,098 inhabitants and a peak flow of 33.00 m3/s were observed; spatial analysis further revealed critical road segments and infrastructure at elevated risk. The study demonstrates that the combined use of properly calibrated hydraulic and hydrological models is effective for accurately identifying flood-prone areas, and that hybrid strategies integrating gray and green infrastructure represent the most feasible and robust approach to reducing overall risk in Ambato’s urban environment.