Evaluación de Riesgos Hidrometeorológicos y Deslaves en la Zona Subtropical del Ecuador. Caso de Estudio: Comunidad Las Moras en el Cantón Pujilí, Provincia de Cotopaxi

Abstract

This study examines the growing threat of hydrometeorological and landslide risks in Las Moras, a rural community located in the subtropical zone of Pujilí Canton, Cotopaxi Province, Ecuador. The research starts from the premise that risk is not solely a natural phenomenon but the outcome of social, economic, and territorial conditions that amplify the vulnerability of local populations. The main objective was to assess landslide risk comprehensively, integrating physical, climatic, and social factors influencing terrain stability and community safety. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining hydrometeorological analysis (rainfall series from 2019–2023), geospatial modeling using GIS tools, and a social vulnerability assessment based on field observations and community validation. Results indicate a critical rainfall threshold of 52 mm/24 h (95th percentile), directly correlated with the main landslide events recorded during the study period. The Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI) identified 28% of the territory as having high or very high risk, while the Vulnerability Capacity Index (VCI) revealed that social fragility and inadequate housing conditions exacerbate exposure. The integration of both indices enabled the delineation of priority intervention zones. As a practical outcome, the research proposes a low-cost, community-based Early Warning System (EWS) tailored to the local context and technological capacities. The study concludes that effective risk reduction requires an interdisciplinary and socially equitable approach that merges geospatial science with local knowledge, strengthening resilience and environmental justice in vulnerable subtropical territories.