Modelo matemático de la producción de la empresa Salinerito en la Provincia Bolívar

Abstract

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The present research work is descriptive, predictive and longitudinal with a trend. The objective was to develop a mathematical model for the production of the company Confites El Salinerito in the Bolívar province, from the production values in the period from January 2017 to July 2020, the data were obtained directly from the company. To achieve the research objectives, the methodology proposed by Box-Jenkins was applied, which describes the characteristics of the time series in terms of trend, seasonality and stationarity; The free software RStudio version 4.0.1 was applied for the estimation of the parameters, the processing and the analysis of the data. It was concluded that the mathematical model that most accurately adjusts to the production values of the company was SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 1) 12, the same one that allowed making the monthly production forecasts for the period from August 2020 to January 2021. The results obtained by the developed model and the methodology used by the company to establish its monthly production were also compared.