Maestría en Matemática Aplicada

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Author: search.filters.author.Bastidas Sarabia, Liliana RocíoSubject: search.filters.subject.AUTOCLAVE

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    Modelo matemático prospectivo para la generación de desechos hospitalarios en el cantón Ambato
    (Universidad Técnica de Ambato. Facultad de Ingeniería en Sistemas, Electrónica e Industrial. Maestría en Matemática Aplicada, 2021) Bastidas Sarabia, Liliana Rocío; Benalcázar Palacios, Freddy Geovanny
    This research is descriptive, longitudinal and projective, in order to develop a prospective mathematical model for the generation of hospital waste in the canton of Ambato, through the database of the SIPECA system of the Municipal Public Company for the Integral Management of Solid Waste from Ambato comprised in the period January 2014 to March 2020. In this research, the time series was applied, especially the SARIMA models that are built under the Box-Jenkins methodology. For the analysis and processing of the database, the free software RStudio version 4.0.1 was used and the computer code was also built. It was possible to build a mathematical model that allows to satisfactorily analyze, explain, describe and predict the production of solid hospital waste collected monthly in the Ambato canton. It is concluded that the model that meets the tests of adequacy and randomness is the SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1) [12] whose forecasting equation is: ΔŶt = -0.326 Yt − 1 + 0.992 Yt − 12 + 0.7882 Ɛt − 1 + 0.8934 Ɛt − 12 + Ɛt, with this model the projections for the period April 2021 to March 2022 were generated. Based on the projections made, it was identified that the security cells for the final disposal of hospital waste occupy an excessive volume in the sanitary landfill, for which it is proposed to use technological equipment such as the autoclave, the same one that helps to treat the waste. solid hospital waste, managing to convert waste into inert waste and reducing its volume by 80%.