Análisis del empleo y su incidencia en el Índice de Desarrollo Humano en el Ecuador durante el período 2005-2015

Abstract

The research project arises from the need to analyze the incidence of employment in the Human Development Index (HDI), and its effects on social welfare in the Ecuadorian population, it’s examining the development of the country, from political, social and economic perspective, through the investigative study, based on the availability of time series data obtained from different official sources from 2005-2015 year, for which two methods of analysis, descriptive and econometric, were constituted. Within the descriptive analysis the values of the indicators that compose the HDI are known as life expectancy at birth, literacy rate and per capita Gross National Income (GNI); In addition the employment variables such as the Economically Active Population (EAP), employment rate and total wage earners; behavior was known over time. Whereas with the econometric analysis two models were structured; The Minimum Ordinary Squares and the Integrated Autoregressive of averages Mobile model (ARIMA) through statistical inference and model selection criteria; the two models were developed by the presence of not-stationary variables. The results indicate that the employment behavior and the HDI are relatively increasing over time; In addition to the econometric analysis, demonstrate the endogeneity of employment in the HDI. The results of this study indicate that employment is a fundamental factor for human development, economic and social welfare.