Cálculo de la distribución espacial y temporal del consumo de energía en el sector residencial del Ecuador entre 2010 y 2050 a una resolución de 1 km2 por hora usando sistemas geográficos de información

Abstract

This research based on geographic information systems GIS aims to be a database source that relates climatic conditions, population density with energy demand in order to be used to optimize energy consumption at the national level, in addition of estimating energy demand for end-uses for decades to come. Through the temporal estimation that was carried out for each hour of each month and spatially for each square kilometer, the calculations were carried out that allowed identifying the energy demand for heating and ventilation of homes, water heating and lighting and electrical appliances. A summation of each generated raster was made to determine a National demand, in addition to which it was possible to determine hourly demand profiles, especially for the two Ecuadorian metropolises. For energy projections, the combination of populations and estimated consumption under SSP2 parameters was used, while for climate projections the RCP 8.5 scenario was used. The resulting data set for the years 2010, 2015, 2020, 2030,2 040 and 2050 is designed for use in: a new integrated assessment model called MUSE and in any analysis of energy end-use technologies in the residential sector.