Análisis de Impacto del Incremento del 2% del Impuesto al Valor Agregado en el Sector de Prendas de Cuero de la Dirección Zonal 3

Abstract

The present investigation took as starting point the generation and application of a fiscal measure, with the objective of generating greater income for the recovery of those affected by the 2016 earthquake. The modification of the percentage of the Value Added Tax from 12 percent to 14 percent was very questioned by different sectors and economic analysts, since being a regressive tax it was argued that the application of this action by the executive would be counterproductive and would generate the rest of the productive and consumer sectors at the country level were affected. Based on these statements was born the need to execute an analysis using quantitative tools in order to verify if these statements were unfounded or based on real projections. For which reference was made to the sector "Manufacture of leather garments or regenerated leather, outer clothing", which is representative in the Dirección Zonal 3, which is made up of the provinces of Tungurahua, Cotopaxi, Pastaza and Chimborazo, since these provinces of the “Región Sierra” are recognized for the production of leather and footwear. In the framework of this study, the hypothesis was raised "The increase of two percentage points of VAT, generated a negative effect on aspects related to sales and total exports in companies related to the leather goods production sector." In order to demonstrate the hypothesis raised, the information of form 104 / 104A of the Servicio de Rentas Internas was taken as a reference, and the values of paid and declared taxes were analyzed, together with national and international sales and purchases, and with analysis of correlation of variables and the tool of prediction based on time series, it was possible to verify that the application of the economic measure implemented nationally for the period of one year from June 2016 to May 2017, did not affect the sector according to the predictions of sales flows and taxes. This conclusion is generated based on the comparison of the projections executed through the statistical prediction tool and the real data reported to the Servicio de Rentas Internas through its forms assigned for this purpose. The average variation of the real data of 16.96 percent over the predictions under normal conditions in the Dirección Zonal 3. This analysis was executed for the same sector but with data at the National level and the behavior remains but with a rate of 5.07 percent variation.