Modelo matemático para estimar la deserción de estudiantes de la U.E. PCEI San Miguel de Salcedo

Abstract

Dropout is inversely proportional to the development of the country, so it is extremely important to mitigate this problem predictively in order to take appropriate precautions. The present investigation aims to alleviate this problem since it aims to determine the mathematical model to estimate the dropout of students in the U. E. PCEI "San Miguel de Salcedo", which will be based on a correlational methodology, since it is intended establish the degrees of relationship between the descriptive variables or independent variables in relation to the dependent variable, it is of a descriptive type since it intends to describe all the aforementioned variables, once the methods, types and levels of investigation were established, the information was collected of the population studied 132 students of the institution, to whom a survey was applied virtually. When modeling the data obtained, it was concluded that the generalized linear model with the logit binomial option, which generated the same coefficients as with the significance criterion, it was established that only one variable had an adequate valuation, for which the Odd Ratio was applied. , being the variables that increase the probability of dropping out of school the following: in an extremely high way they are, if they have a criminal record, economic status; The factors that increase the probability of dropping out of school in a high to medium way are marital status, the sex of the students, having a dysfunctional family and occupations.